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Nickel iron prices stabilize, but cannot hide the weakness of the stainless steel market:青山's production reduction triggers industry adjustments, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term
Release time:
2025-07-08
On July 3, the domestic ex-factory price of high-nickel pig iron by Mysteel remained stable at 910-915 yuan/nickel; under the condition of significant losses of iron plants, the downward pressure on nickel iron prices is relatively large.
On July 3, the domestic ex-factory price of high-nickel pig iron by Mysteel remained stable at 910-915 yuan/nickel; under the significant losses of iron plants, it is difficult for nickel iron prices to continue to decline. Affected by weak demand and trade uncertainties, Tsingshan Holding Group, the world's largest stainless steel producer, has had to cut production. The main production line of its stainless steel plant in Indonesia has announced a production suspension, which has sparked widespread discussion in the industry. In April this year, stainless steel prices in China and Indonesia both fell to their lowest levels in five years. At the same time, global nickel ore spot prices continued to fall, with a year-on-year decrease of about 13.2%, indicating that the stainless steel market is actually in a state of oversupply. Indonesian economic experts pointed out that there are currently 44 nickel smelters in Indonesia, which is a serious overcapacity. Effective reduction of the existing industrial scale is necessary to prevent a price collapse.
In the first half of this year, the growth rate of stainless steel supply exceeded that of demand, and import and export data showed signs of marginal weakening. The impact of global trade negotiations on demand needs to be continuously monitored. Under the condition of strong supply and weak demand, stainless steel continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, the support of cost to price is insufficient, and the price inversion between market price and cost provides a certain bullish expectation for longs. Short-term stainless steel production cuts are expected to boost price rebounds, but the long-term production cut trend has not yet arrived, and prices are still in the "bottoming-out" phase.
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